Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 30 2021 | 10530 | 45592 | 336 | 98 | 353 | 471 |
| January 31 2021 | 10554 | 45664 | 338 | 98 | 321 | 448 |
| February 01 2021 | 10583 | 45713 | 338 | 98 | 312 | 459 |
| February 02 2021 | 10597 | 45798 | 337 | 98 | 286 | 464 |
| February 03 2021 | 10637 | 45852 | 338 | 98 | 287 | 460 |
| February 04 2021 | 10672 | 45956 | 340 | 98 | 302 | 439 |
| February 05 2021 | 10707 | 46044 | 341 | 101 | 318 | 436 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.6 | 6% | 19 | 0.17% | 29 | 0.25% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 4.6 | 13.8% | 44 | 0.32% | 63 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 8.7 | 25.2% | 80 | 0.38% | 101 | 0.48% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 4.1 | 13.8% | 44 | 0.32% | 63 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 4.0 | 14.8% | 47 | 0.45% | 57 | 0.54% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.1 | 9.1% | 29 | 0.23% | 47 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.3 | 9.4% | 30 | 0.26% | 41 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.4 | 7.9% | 25 | 0.24% | 35 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 35 | 29.9 | 100% | 318 | 0.3% | 436 | 0.42% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 30 2021 | 6801 | 26841 | 204 | 80 | 241 | 317 |
| January 31 2021 | 6822 | 26892 | 204 | 80 | 223 | 309 |
| February 01 2021 | 6833 | 26922 | 205 | 80 | 191 | 299 |
| February 02 2021 | 6833 | 26966 | 205 | 80 | 176 | 290 |
| February 03 2021 | 6863 | 27042 | 207 | 83 | 182 | 303 |
| February 04 2021 | 6871 | 27099 | 208 | 84 | 178 | 272 |
| February 05 2021 | 6888 | 27146 | 209 | 84 | 178 | 246 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.0 | 7.9% | 14 | 0.18% | 17 | 0.22% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 2.1 | 12.9% | 23 | 0.27% | 31 | 0.37% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 2.0 | 14% | 25 | 0.35% | 34 | 0.48% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 2.0 | 18% | 32 | 0.38% | 39 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 1.9 | 11.2% | 20 | 0.26% | 39 | 0.5% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 2.1 | 15.7% | 28 | 0.29% | 39 | 0.4% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 1.9 | 9.6% | 17 | 0.2% | 20 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.4 | 10.7% | 19 | 0.27% | 27 | 0.38% |
| All ages | 17 | 14.4 | 100% | 178 | 0.28% | 246 | 0.38% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 30 2021 | 5122 | 17929 | 217 | 71 | 193 | 261 |
| January 31 2021 | 5134 | 17970 | 217 | 71 | 184 | 245 |
| February 01 2021 | 5134 | 17979 | 217 | 71 | 150 | 223 |
| February 02 2021 | 5135 | 18003 | 217 | 71 | 129 | 222 |
| February 03 2021 | 5147 | 18055 | 217 | 71 | 123 | 218 |
| February 04 2021 | 5163 | 18101 | 218 | 72 | 127 | 213 |
| February 05 2021 | 5179 | 18131 | 221 | 73 | 136 | 195 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.4% | 6 | 0.11% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 0.7 | 12.5% | 17 | 0.31% | 24 | 0.44% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 1.6 | 14% | 19 | 0.42% | 24 | 0.53% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.7 | 8.1% | 11 | 0.2% | 19 | 0.35% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 1.3 | 14.7% | 20 | 0.4% | 28 | 0.56% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.1 | 18.4% | 25 | 0.37% | 36 | 0.53% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.3 | 12.5% | 17 | 0.27% | 26 | 0.41% |
| 70+ | 5 | 2.0 | 15.4% | 21 | 0.33% | 30 | 0.47% |
| All ages | 16 | 10.1 | 100% | 136 | 0.3% | 195 | 0.43% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 30 2021 | 11687 | 49068 | 331 | 72 | 524 | 682 |
| January 31 2021 | 11728 | 49148 | 331 | 73 | 535 | 703 |
| February 01 2021 | 11753 | 49242 | 333 | 73 | 536 | 675 |
| February 02 2021 | 11774 | 49361 | 339 | 74 | 495 | 672 |
| February 03 2021 | 11815 | 49522 | 340 | 74 | 516 | 652 |
| February 04 2021 | 11843 | 49643 | 341 | 74 | 461 | 650 |
| February 05 2021 | 11869 | 49775 | 341 | 74 | 452 | 652 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | -1 | 2.3 | 6% | 27 | 0.23% | 39 | 0.33% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 3.9 | 17.3% | 78 | 0.47% | 128 | 0.77% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 5.4 | 25% | 113 | 0.53% | 163 | 0.77% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 6.0 | 14.8% | 67 | 0.49% | 85 | 0.63% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 4.4 | 11.3% | 51 | 0.38% | 78 | 0.57% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 4.1 | 11.1% | 50 | 0.35% | 73 | 0.51% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.4 | 8.4% | 38 | 0.27% | 49 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.1 | 6.2% | 28 | 0.22% | 37 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 26 | 31.7 | 100% | 452 | 0.38% | 652 | 0.55% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 30 2021 | 37848 | 311926 | 1146 | 251 | 1259 | 1551 |
| January 31 2021 | 37949 | 312511 | 1151 | 251 | 1203 | 1516 |
| February 01 2021 | 38020 | 312912 | 1152 | 251 | 1076 | 1498 |
| February 02 2021 | 38085 | 312902 | 1157 | 251 | 1007 | 1522 |
| February 03 2021 | 38164 | 313016 | 1162 | 251 | 971 | 1575 |
| February 04 2021 | 38372 | 313667 | 1162 | 256 | 1087 | 1626 |
| February 05 2021 | 38487 | 314043 | 1162 | 256 | 1135 | 1543 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 4.9 | 5.2% | 59 | 0.1% | 80 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 29 | 26.1 | 20.8% | 236 | 0.33% | 288 | 0.41% |
| 20-29 | 34 | 34.4 | 31.4% | 356 | 0.34% | 437 | 0.42% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 11.7 | 11% | 125 | 0.16% | 199 | 0.26% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 9.6 | 10.4% | 118 | 0.18% | 170 | 0.26% |
| 50-59 | 15 | 13.1 | 12.2% | 139 | 0.21% | 205 | 0.31% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 7.1 | 5.9% | 67 | 0.12% | 102 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 6 | 4.4 | 3.1% | 35 | 0.07% | 62 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 115 | 111.4 | 100% | 1135 | 0.21% | 1543 | 0.28% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 30 2021 | 541408 | 2503387 | 24243 | 5893 | 15484 | 21220 |
| January 31 2021 | 542415 | 2507600 | 24298 | 5896 | 14314 | 20621 |
| February 01 2021 | 543165 | 2510670 | 24337 | 5897 | 12994 | 20288 |
| February 02 2021 | 544260 | 2512757 | 24460 | 5937 | 12408 | 19858 |
| February 03 2021 | 545437 | 2517446 | 24554 | 5951 | 12466 | 19513 |
| February 04 2021 | 546955 | 2523102 | 24634 | 5992 | 13038 | 18854 |
| February 05 2021 | 548221 | 2527562 | 24734 | 6020 | 13003 | 18050 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 88 | 74.6 | 6.3% | 824 | 0.13% | 1121 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 183 | 163.6 | 13.8% | 1793 | 0.24% | 2418 | 0.32% |
| 20-29 | 206 | 194.7 | 16% | 2085 | 0.28% | 2869 | 0.38% |
| 30-39 | 158 | 168.3 | 14.2% | 1847 | 0.24% | 2596 | 0.34% |
| 40-49 | 155 | 160.6 | 14.2% | 1846 | 0.26% | 2534 | 0.36% |
| 50-59 | 186 | 168.4 | 14.1% | 1839 | 0.23% | 2626 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 152 | 141.1 | 11.4% | 1481 | 0.2% | 2092 | 0.28% |
| 70+ | 138 | 115.3 | 9.9% | 1288 | 0.2% | 1794 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 1266 | 1186.6 | 100% | 13003 | 0.22% | 18050 | 0.31% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.7 | 46.3 | 48.3 | 29.9 | 35.1 | 25.6% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 14.4 | 22.7 | 21.7% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43.1 | 10.1 | 17.9 | 23.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.1 | 77.3 | 76.6 | 31.7 | 43.4 | 20.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.2 | 40.5 | 42.1 | 111.4 | 109 | 22.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 31.9 | 37.9 | 1186.6 | 1577.1 | 22.2% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.62 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-26 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5131"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges